Lung Cancer Risk Estimation in Current and Past Smokers (6-year)

 

Input
 

Age		mo yr
Race	White (0)
	Black (0.3944778)
	Hispanic (-0.7434744)
	Asian (-0.466585)
	Native American/Alaskan (0)
	Native Pacific islander/Hawaiian (1.027152)
Education	Less than high school (1)
	High School graduate (2)
	Training after high school (3)
	Some college (4)
	College graduate (5)
	Postgraduate training (6)
Body Mass Index		kg/m(2) kg/m(2) kg/m2 kg/m2 kg/m^2 kg/m^2 kg/sqm
COPD	(0.3553063)
History of cancer	(0.4589971)
Family history of lung cancer	(0.587185)
Current smoker	(0.2597431)
Cigarettes per day		# count index logit none number points score
Years smoking		mo yr
Years since quitting smoking		mo yr

 
Results
 
Important: Inputs must be complete to perform calculation.

 

Log odds		# count index logit none number points score
Risk		% fraction percent rate ratio
Decimal Precision   0 1 2 3

 

 

Notes

• This calculator is based on study-group subjects between the ages of 55 and 74. It is not appropriate for subjects outside this age range or for subjects who have never smoked.

 

Race-related details (by epocrates)

• Lung cancer risk calculated by this equation is lower for Hispanic and Asian patients--and higher for Black/African American and Native Pacific Islander/Hawaiian patients--compared with White patients with otherwise identical parameters (e.g., pack-years of smoking, years since quitting smoking). This calculation outperforms some models that don’t factor race. However, 1 study on low-dose CT screening found that although Black patients had significantly higher mean 6-year lung cancer risk scores compared to White patients, among those with screen-detected lung cancers, Black patients had lower calculated risk scores than White patients. Source: Shusted CS, et al. Calculated Six-Year Lung Cancer Risk Is Differentially Enriched Among Black and White Patients Eligible for Lung Cancer Screening. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2020;201:A5996

 
Equations used
 

Logodds = (0.0778868 * (Age - 62)) + Race - (0.0812744 * (Education - 4)) - (0.0274194 * (BodyMassIndex - 27)) + COPD + HxCa + FMHCa + Smoker - (1.822606 * ((10 / Cigarettesperday) - 0.4021541613)) + (0.0317321 * (Yearssmoking - 27)) - (0.0308572 * (Yearssincequittingsmoking - 10)) - 4.532506

Risk = 100 * (e(Logodds) / (1 + e(Logodds)))

 

 
Equation parameters such as Race, have two or more discrete values that may be used in the calculation. The numbers in the parentheses, e.g. (0), represent the values that will be used.
 

 

References

1. Tammemagi MC, Katki HA, Hocking WG, et al. Selection criteria for lung-cancer screening. N Engl J Med. 2013 Feb 21;368(8):728-36. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1211776.